08-14-2017, 07:50 PM
08-15-2017, 07:03 AM
(08-14-2017 07:50 PM)iojik Wrote: [ -> ]PM sent!!
I communicate 24h/24h on TG with my clients.
(08-14-2017 04:56 AM)smartys Wrote: [ -> ]I like to to join in iojik's Program.
But what to do?
She is absent for last 5 days from here.
No reply for my PM.
I wonder, how she manage her clients who have already joined!
Hi iojik,
Got your PM.
I didn't know that you are on holidays.
Sorry for such a posting.
Happy to know that you communicate 24h on TG with your clients.
08-15-2017, 02:30 PM
very interested, i sent you PM, please check
08-24-2017, 10:43 PM
HOW I USED MATHS TO BEAT THE BOOKIES
A mathematician on how he made a 200% return from betting on football
https://mega.nz/#!SsEBlJaC!pptYVco-6ni53...9Z0Zyl12FA
A mathematician on how he made a 200% return from betting on football
https://mega.nz/#!SsEBlJaC!pptYVco-6ni53...9Z0Zyl12FA
08-26-2017, 12:45 AM
Mathematics and Statistics in Sports Betting
Some mistakenly believe that mathematics and statistics are insignificant in sports betting. The truth is that just like in casino games, the effectiveness of a sports betting system to generate profits depends strictly on mathematics.
Even when there is no obvious system, as if a player bets blindly, the bettor may inadvertently wager using math correctly! Even in the case when betting decisions are influenced by the news, predictions and rumors, a player’s profitability is directly depended on math.
On the other hand, statistics may be applied when we create a system, but are mainly used in the study of the system’s results, as in testing the credibility of the followed methods.
MATHEMATICS IN SPORTS BETTING: JUST A SIMPLE EQUATION
The truth is that for most people betting on sports is more like a hobby – as it should be.
However, if sports bettors spent some time on making the following very simple calculations, it would be possible to minimize the losses from betting and, why not, stop being an expensive hobby.
There is no doubt most players lose a lot of money betting, either online or offline. The majority of players do not record the results of their bets. In other words, they do not systematically track what comes in and what goes out on their betting account each month. This is one of the 10 reasons we lose in sports betting.
Going back to the topic of mathematics in betting, coming out a winner in sports betting depends on a very simple equation.
Consider the average of odds you bet on, let us say 2.00. Now think how often your betting tips win. Suppose the answer is 45 percent. This means that for every 100 bets, you win 45 bets corresponding to 45 units profit (since you are betting on 2.00 average odds). At the same time, you lose 55 bets, which translate to a loss of 55 units.
If you wager €10 per bet on average (in this case one unit equals €10), after 100 bets you would make €450 on your successful predictions and lose €550 on the rest. So you will find yourself to be losing a total of €100. If you bet 100 times each month (about 3 matches on average per day), sports betting costs you about €1,200 every year; more than a regular monthly salary for most people.
The above example can easily be represented by the general equation Y= X*Z, where X is the average odds of betting and Z is the success rate of predictions. If the product (Y) is greater than 1, you will be a winner in sports betting in the long run. Otherwise, the smaller than 1 the quicker you lose your capital.
These are actually the only math to have in mind – for the bettors who want to bet merely for the enjoyment. The result (Y) in that mathematical equation distinguishes players between winners and losers and betting systems between profitable and money-losing.
Write down all the matches you bet at odds of 2.00. Then verify how many of those bets have worked well. If it is 50 percent or less, the news is not good. However, if it is over 50 percent then, in general, you pick your bets correctly.
HOW DO I WIN IN SPORTS BETTING? THE ANSWER LIES ON THE EQUATION!
We all wonder how come some people manage to win in sports betting. That is the same as asking how the Y in the equation above is larger than 1. The answer of course lies on X and Z.
In the example above, we saw that X equals to 2.00 and Z to 0.45 (45 percent). Thus, in order Y to become larger than 1, either X or Z should increase. This means we should choose higher odds than 2.00 or increase the success rate of our forecasts.
So there are two solutions:
to stick to the same method of picking our bets looking, however, for better odds; or
to improve our betting system’s winning probability.
In the first case, odds comparison is crucial, while in the latter we should work on the parameters and variables of our system.
STATISTICS IN SPORTS BETTING
We have now demonstrated how a single mathematical equation distinguishes winners from losers. Since we are on the awkward subject of math, let us say a couple of things about statistics and odds.
There are quite a few posts that I read online from time to time that advise players not to follow the statistics, if they want to win in sports betting. They claim that statistics are there to be challenged, as historic data and the frequency of a team scoring, for example, do not have any effect on our sports betting performance. As they say:
The ball spins without knowing any laws or statistics!
Indeed, it is a totally respectable view, no objection on that. Nevertheless, we must not forget that there are a large number of applications and innumerable excel sheets dealing with statistics in sports betting; a fact that, if no other, demonstrates that a great percentage of players are trying to beat the odds through the analysis of teams’ and players’ statistics. By completely rejecting the notion of statistics in sports betting is like deploring those who follow it.
Moreover, we should consider the fact that in every sport event, statistics are reported during the event. At the same time, major sports news sites keep statistical data for many years to come.
Yet you might say: well Jim, you already answered that question yourself. Statistics just sell to a whole lot of people who think they may become winners following statistical models. They are giving them the necessary hope to keep them into the game, to keep them interested.
This is indeed an explanation that perhaps I should write about in the future. Having said that, I must also mention that at times betting systems emerge, which rely exclusively on the statistical analysis of the games. Moreover, in several movies statistics are shown as the Holy Grail of betting. What the heck, a part of these allegations must be true.
Nevertheless, statistics in sports betting are applied extensively when building or improving a particular betting system. Now, I am not talking about the input variables of a system, such as statistics used in tennis matches. I’m referring to the statistical analysis of the system’s actual performance, such as the drawdown.
By studying the reliability of the system, based on statistical aggregates, we are confident for the betting system’s future performance, while confirming the proper functioning of our system. A system that makes 5 points out of a sample of 100 bets may be satisfactory. Yet, I would rather have a system that makes 250 points tested on a sample of 10,000 games! And that is where mathematics and statistics make a huge difference in sports betting.
Some mistakenly believe that mathematics and statistics are insignificant in sports betting. The truth is that just like in casino games, the effectiveness of a sports betting system to generate profits depends strictly on mathematics.
Even when there is no obvious system, as if a player bets blindly, the bettor may inadvertently wager using math correctly! Even in the case when betting decisions are influenced by the news, predictions and rumors, a player’s profitability is directly depended on math.
On the other hand, statistics may be applied when we create a system, but are mainly used in the study of the system’s results, as in testing the credibility of the followed methods.
MATHEMATICS IN SPORTS BETTING: JUST A SIMPLE EQUATION
The truth is that for most people betting on sports is more like a hobby – as it should be.
However, if sports bettors spent some time on making the following very simple calculations, it would be possible to minimize the losses from betting and, why not, stop being an expensive hobby.
There is no doubt most players lose a lot of money betting, either online or offline. The majority of players do not record the results of their bets. In other words, they do not systematically track what comes in and what goes out on their betting account each month. This is one of the 10 reasons we lose in sports betting.
Going back to the topic of mathematics in betting, coming out a winner in sports betting depends on a very simple equation.
Consider the average of odds you bet on, let us say 2.00. Now think how often your betting tips win. Suppose the answer is 45 percent. This means that for every 100 bets, you win 45 bets corresponding to 45 units profit (since you are betting on 2.00 average odds). At the same time, you lose 55 bets, which translate to a loss of 55 units.
If you wager €10 per bet on average (in this case one unit equals €10), after 100 bets you would make €450 on your successful predictions and lose €550 on the rest. So you will find yourself to be losing a total of €100. If you bet 100 times each month (about 3 matches on average per day), sports betting costs you about €1,200 every year; more than a regular monthly salary for most people.
The above example can easily be represented by the general equation Y= X*Z, where X is the average odds of betting and Z is the success rate of predictions. If the product (Y) is greater than 1, you will be a winner in sports betting in the long run. Otherwise, the smaller than 1 the quicker you lose your capital.
These are actually the only math to have in mind – for the bettors who want to bet merely for the enjoyment. The result (Y) in that mathematical equation distinguishes players between winners and losers and betting systems between profitable and money-losing.
Write down all the matches you bet at odds of 2.00. Then verify how many of those bets have worked well. If it is 50 percent or less, the news is not good. However, if it is over 50 percent then, in general, you pick your bets correctly.
HOW DO I WIN IN SPORTS BETTING? THE ANSWER LIES ON THE EQUATION!
We all wonder how come some people manage to win in sports betting. That is the same as asking how the Y in the equation above is larger than 1. The answer of course lies on X and Z.
In the example above, we saw that X equals to 2.00 and Z to 0.45 (45 percent). Thus, in order Y to become larger than 1, either X or Z should increase. This means we should choose higher odds than 2.00 or increase the success rate of our forecasts.
So there are two solutions:
to stick to the same method of picking our bets looking, however, for better odds; or
to improve our betting system’s winning probability.
In the first case, odds comparison is crucial, while in the latter we should work on the parameters and variables of our system.
STATISTICS IN SPORTS BETTING
We have now demonstrated how a single mathematical equation distinguishes winners from losers. Since we are on the awkward subject of math, let us say a couple of things about statistics and odds.
There are quite a few posts that I read online from time to time that advise players not to follow the statistics, if they want to win in sports betting. They claim that statistics are there to be challenged, as historic data and the frequency of a team scoring, for example, do not have any effect on our sports betting performance. As they say:
The ball spins without knowing any laws or statistics!
Indeed, it is a totally respectable view, no objection on that. Nevertheless, we must not forget that there are a large number of applications and innumerable excel sheets dealing with statistics in sports betting; a fact that, if no other, demonstrates that a great percentage of players are trying to beat the odds through the analysis of teams’ and players’ statistics. By completely rejecting the notion of statistics in sports betting is like deploring those who follow it.
Moreover, we should consider the fact that in every sport event, statistics are reported during the event. At the same time, major sports news sites keep statistical data for many years to come.
Yet you might say: well Jim, you already answered that question yourself. Statistics just sell to a whole lot of people who think they may become winners following statistical models. They are giving them the necessary hope to keep them into the game, to keep them interested.
This is indeed an explanation that perhaps I should write about in the future. Having said that, I must also mention that at times betting systems emerge, which rely exclusively on the statistical analysis of the games. Moreover, in several movies statistics are shown as the Holy Grail of betting. What the heck, a part of these allegations must be true.
Nevertheless, statistics in sports betting are applied extensively when building or improving a particular betting system. Now, I am not talking about the input variables of a system, such as statistics used in tennis matches. I’m referring to the statistical analysis of the system’s actual performance, such as the drawdown.
By studying the reliability of the system, based on statistical aggregates, we are confident for the betting system’s future performance, while confirming the proper functioning of our system. A system that makes 5 points out of a sample of 100 bets may be satisfactory. Yet, I would rather have a system that makes 250 points tested on a sample of 10,000 games! And that is where mathematics and statistics make a huge difference in sports betting.
08-26-2017, 09:56 AM
Hi Shinobi,
What a fantastic post!
This gives much knowledge to the noobs like me.
(Sorry to see that you were absent in this forum for last 1 week).
Expects more and more good articles from you.
Thanks much.
.
What a fantastic post!
This gives much knowledge to the noobs like me.
(Sorry to see that you were absent in this forum for last 1 week).
Expects more and more good articles from you.
Thanks much.
.
08-26-2017, 08:05 PM
How to Generate $100,000 a Year Betting on Sports
Generating $100,000 a year betting on sports sounds like a great goal for any aspiring sports bettor. Anyone who wants to be a professional sports bettor should set a goal at least this high.
How realistic is winning $100,000 a year betting on sports?
It's not for the faint of heart or anyone with a small bankroll.
But with the proper mindset, bankroll, and work, it can be done.
Set Your Goal
Your first step is to break that goal into smaller goals:
$100,000 a year in winnings means you have to average:
$8333 per month
$1924 per week
$274 per day
By breaking down exactly what you need to do to reach your goal you can see how easy (or hard) it looks.
$274 a day might seem easy. But that's $274 EVERY day of the year, 7 days a week, 52 weeks per year.
Win $1,000 on Sunday and you can cover what you need for Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and part of Wednesday. But you need to maintain a pace that keeps you close to your daily (or weekly or monthly) goal. If you start falling behind, it's easy to give up.
You must know exactly how much you need. You must track your progress frequently. The more often you track your progress, the better aware you'll be of exactly where you stand toward reaching your goal.
Break the Goal into Steps
Once you know exactly how much you need to win every day, week, or month you can break your goal into steps.
Every sport has a season. Decide if you'll be betting year round or just on particular sports. Most sports bettors focus on NFL and NCAA football seasons. If those are the only two seasons you bet, you need to make much more per week or month. Those seasons don't last all year.
Are you willing to bet on football, baseball, and basketball?
If so, you'll have games to bet on all year.
Concentrate on sports where you can bet with a true edge. Don't expand your handicapping if you can't do it while maintaining a winning edge.
If you can bet on football and baseball you can place bets most of the year. After the Super Bowl (in February) and before the beginning of baseball season starts (in late March or early April) will be your only down time.
Here's how to break a $100,000 a year goal down into steps.
You plan to bet on all three sports mentioned above. But you want to focus mostly on football and baseball. You're better at those games.
The math works like this:
You pick basketball games at a 53% winning rate.
You pick baseball games at 53.5%.
You pick football at 54%.
You place all your bets at a 10% vig (110 to win 100).
Your goal is $10,000 profit a month. (If you fall a little short, you'll still hit your annual goal of $100,000).
February and March are the only months you plan to wager on basketball because the only other action you can lay are a few football games.
To make $10,000 a month betting basketball with a 53% winning percentage you have to wager about $8,000 per game on 100 games to bet.
You'll make $424,000 on the 53 games you win.
You'll lose $413,600 on the other games.
What's tour total profit in this scenario?
It's $10,400 for the month.
You do better in football season. What do you need to do per month at 54%?
Can you find 100 games to place bets on during a month of football?
If so, you only need to place 100 bets of $3,000 each to make your $10,000 goal.
You make $162,000 on the 54 wins and lose $151,800 on the 46 losses.
Notice the huge difference a single percent makes?
This one point is worth millions of dollars.
Focus on improving your winning percentage. A single point can be worth millions in the long run.
But here's the problem with football:
Even though you include college and pro games, you'll still have a hard time finding 100 games in a month where you can get an edge.
What if you can only find 50 games every month?
You need to bet $6,000 per game on 50 games to reach the same results.
That's $12,000 per game if you're only betting on 25 games.
Those aren't the only factors to consider, though. If you get a chance to place bets with a reduced vig, you can increase your wins or reduce the bets you need to reach your goals.
You have to win on a consistent basis, of course. But you also have to do one of the following:
Bet on a lot of games
Place large wagers
Both
YOU CAN'T TAKE MANY DAYS OFF. YOU HAVE TO RISK A LOT OF MONEY IN ORDER TO STAY ON TRACK.
What It Takes to Beat the Sports Book
This is all based on your ability to beat the sports book consistently in the long run. If you can't win at least 53% of the time, you can't generate $100,000 a year betting on sports. (Unless you can place reduced vig wagers—in that case, you only need to be able to win 52% of your wagers.)
Depending on your bankroll, you might be able to profit that much some years. In others you will lose money.
The only way to beat the sports books in the long run is to work harder than they do. You must collect and analyze more statistics than they do. You must develop personal systems that help you find profitable betting opportunities.
You have to be willing to keep working until you find an edge no matter what. You can never stop looking for better systems.
Can you make up your mind?
Are you willing to commit to doing whatever it takes?
If not, you can't even hope to generate a living betting on sports.
Start With a Large Bankroll – Bankroll Management
You have to place a lot of big bets in order to win $100,000 a year betting on sports.
Professional sports betting works like investing. In the long run, pro sports bettors can determine how much they stand to win based on their winning percentage and the size of their wagers.
"Return on investment" and "annual percentage rate" are two investing terms that important in sports betting, too.
How much would you need to invest in order to make $100,000 a year at 10% simple interest?
If you answered $1 million, pat yourself on the back. $1 million times 10% is $100,000.
Is a 10% return on investment is reasonable?
In most financial markets, 10% is a strong return.
How big do you think your bankroll needs to be in order to win $100,000 a year sports betting?
$50,000 or even a $100,000 isn't enough.
If you can double your bankroll in a year, you can become insanely rich fast. I can't claim that no one doubles their bankroll in a year betting on sports, but I'm not comfortable taking the risk. You shouldn';t be either.
Determining the proper bankroll size depends on the following:
How consistent are you at picking winners?
How many games do you bet on?
How much do you bet on each game?
Entire books cover the size of investments / wagers in comparison to the size of your bankroll. I can't cover everything you need to know here, but I can get you started.
Consider this:
A sports bettor who's picking winners at a 60% rate can easily lose 10 games in a row.
Lose the first 10 games of a 100 game series, and you only need to win 60 out of the remaining 90.
If you only win at 54% (only the top sports bettors do much better), you can lose the first 10 and only need to win 54 out of the next 90.
Suppose you have a $100,000 bankroll. You're betting $8,000 a game.
You could get down to $20,000 and still be on course to win in the long run.
A Different Approach
This all involves placing bets on a large number of games. This is the safest way to generate consistent money betting on sports. By spreading your risk over many games, you diversify your bankroll and investments. Your positive expectation can take over in the long run. Short term fluctuations won't make much difference. Your risk of ruin (chances of going broke) are minimal.
But you could only bet on the games that offer the best edges. You'd have to bet more on each game. The most extreme example of this would be only placing a bet on one game a year for $100,000. If you win, you've generated $100,000 profit for the year.
Here's the problem:
THERE'S NO SUCH THING AS A LOCK OR 100% GUARANTEE IN SPORTS BETTING SHORT OF FIXING A GAME.
That's way beyond the scope of this post. Even if this method works for a few years, you will eventually lose a $110,000 wager. Suppose you not only have great patience, but you can pick winners at 60% by only betting on certain games with the best edge. Over the course of the year you find 100 games you could bet on.
You need to bet $6,000 on each of the 100 games to win $96,000 for the year.
You make $360,000 on the 60 games you win.
You lose $264,000 on the 40 you lose.
Can you only find 50 games?
Now you need to bet $12,000 on each.
25 games?
You need to wager $24,000 per game.
Summary
Setting goals, making plans, and taking action is a great way to get what you want in life. If you want to win $100,000 a year betting on sports, you might be able to pull it off.
But understand exactly what you need to do to accomplish this goal.
You'll have to decide how much you want to diversify your bankroll.
You'll also have to decide how much work and time is worth that $100,000 a year goal.
Generating $100,000 a year betting on sports sounds like a great goal for any aspiring sports bettor. Anyone who wants to be a professional sports bettor should set a goal at least this high.
How realistic is winning $100,000 a year betting on sports?
It's not for the faint of heart or anyone with a small bankroll.
But with the proper mindset, bankroll, and work, it can be done.
Set Your Goal
Your first step is to break that goal into smaller goals:
$100,000 a year in winnings means you have to average:
$8333 per month
$1924 per week
$274 per day
By breaking down exactly what you need to do to reach your goal you can see how easy (or hard) it looks.
$274 a day might seem easy. But that's $274 EVERY day of the year, 7 days a week, 52 weeks per year.
Win $1,000 on Sunday and you can cover what you need for Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and part of Wednesday. But you need to maintain a pace that keeps you close to your daily (or weekly or monthly) goal. If you start falling behind, it's easy to give up.
You must know exactly how much you need. You must track your progress frequently. The more often you track your progress, the better aware you'll be of exactly where you stand toward reaching your goal.
Break the Goal into Steps
Once you know exactly how much you need to win every day, week, or month you can break your goal into steps.
Every sport has a season. Decide if you'll be betting year round or just on particular sports. Most sports bettors focus on NFL and NCAA football seasons. If those are the only two seasons you bet, you need to make much more per week or month. Those seasons don't last all year.
Are you willing to bet on football, baseball, and basketball?
If so, you'll have games to bet on all year.
Concentrate on sports where you can bet with a true edge. Don't expand your handicapping if you can't do it while maintaining a winning edge.
If you can bet on football and baseball you can place bets most of the year. After the Super Bowl (in February) and before the beginning of baseball season starts (in late March or early April) will be your only down time.
Here's how to break a $100,000 a year goal down into steps.
You plan to bet on all three sports mentioned above. But you want to focus mostly on football and baseball. You're better at those games.
The math works like this:
You pick basketball games at a 53% winning rate.
You pick baseball games at 53.5%.
You pick football at 54%.
You place all your bets at a 10% vig (110 to win 100).
Your goal is $10,000 profit a month. (If you fall a little short, you'll still hit your annual goal of $100,000).
February and March are the only months you plan to wager on basketball because the only other action you can lay are a few football games.
To make $10,000 a month betting basketball with a 53% winning percentage you have to wager about $8,000 per game on 100 games to bet.
You'll make $424,000 on the 53 games you win.
You'll lose $413,600 on the other games.
What's tour total profit in this scenario?
It's $10,400 for the month.
You do better in football season. What do you need to do per month at 54%?
Can you find 100 games to place bets on during a month of football?
If so, you only need to place 100 bets of $3,000 each to make your $10,000 goal.
You make $162,000 on the 54 wins and lose $151,800 on the 46 losses.
Notice the huge difference a single percent makes?
This one point is worth millions of dollars.
Focus on improving your winning percentage. A single point can be worth millions in the long run.
But here's the problem with football:
Even though you include college and pro games, you'll still have a hard time finding 100 games in a month where you can get an edge.
What if you can only find 50 games every month?
You need to bet $6,000 per game on 50 games to reach the same results.
That's $12,000 per game if you're only betting on 25 games.
Those aren't the only factors to consider, though. If you get a chance to place bets with a reduced vig, you can increase your wins or reduce the bets you need to reach your goals.
You have to win on a consistent basis, of course. But you also have to do one of the following:
Bet on a lot of games
Place large wagers
Both
YOU CAN'T TAKE MANY DAYS OFF. YOU HAVE TO RISK A LOT OF MONEY IN ORDER TO STAY ON TRACK.
What It Takes to Beat the Sports Book
This is all based on your ability to beat the sports book consistently in the long run. If you can't win at least 53% of the time, you can't generate $100,000 a year betting on sports. (Unless you can place reduced vig wagers—in that case, you only need to be able to win 52% of your wagers.)
Depending on your bankroll, you might be able to profit that much some years. In others you will lose money.
The only way to beat the sports books in the long run is to work harder than they do. You must collect and analyze more statistics than they do. You must develop personal systems that help you find profitable betting opportunities.
You have to be willing to keep working until you find an edge no matter what. You can never stop looking for better systems.
Can you make up your mind?
Are you willing to commit to doing whatever it takes?
If not, you can't even hope to generate a living betting on sports.
Start With a Large Bankroll – Bankroll Management
You have to place a lot of big bets in order to win $100,000 a year betting on sports.
Professional sports betting works like investing. In the long run, pro sports bettors can determine how much they stand to win based on their winning percentage and the size of their wagers.
"Return on investment" and "annual percentage rate" are two investing terms that important in sports betting, too.
How much would you need to invest in order to make $100,000 a year at 10% simple interest?
If you answered $1 million, pat yourself on the back. $1 million times 10% is $100,000.
Is a 10% return on investment is reasonable?
In most financial markets, 10% is a strong return.
How big do you think your bankroll needs to be in order to win $100,000 a year sports betting?
$50,000 or even a $100,000 isn't enough.
If you can double your bankroll in a year, you can become insanely rich fast. I can't claim that no one doubles their bankroll in a year betting on sports, but I'm not comfortable taking the risk. You shouldn';t be either.
Determining the proper bankroll size depends on the following:
How consistent are you at picking winners?
How many games do you bet on?
How much do you bet on each game?
Entire books cover the size of investments / wagers in comparison to the size of your bankroll. I can't cover everything you need to know here, but I can get you started.
Consider this:
A sports bettor who's picking winners at a 60% rate can easily lose 10 games in a row.
Lose the first 10 games of a 100 game series, and you only need to win 60 out of the remaining 90.
If you only win at 54% (only the top sports bettors do much better), you can lose the first 10 and only need to win 54 out of the next 90.
Suppose you have a $100,000 bankroll. You're betting $8,000 a game.
You could get down to $20,000 and still be on course to win in the long run.
A Different Approach
This all involves placing bets on a large number of games. This is the safest way to generate consistent money betting on sports. By spreading your risk over many games, you diversify your bankroll and investments. Your positive expectation can take over in the long run. Short term fluctuations won't make much difference. Your risk of ruin (chances of going broke) are minimal.
But you could only bet on the games that offer the best edges. You'd have to bet more on each game. The most extreme example of this would be only placing a bet on one game a year for $100,000. If you win, you've generated $100,000 profit for the year.
Here's the problem:
THERE'S NO SUCH THING AS A LOCK OR 100% GUARANTEE IN SPORTS BETTING SHORT OF FIXING A GAME.
That's way beyond the scope of this post. Even if this method works for a few years, you will eventually lose a $110,000 wager. Suppose you not only have great patience, but you can pick winners at 60% by only betting on certain games with the best edge. Over the course of the year you find 100 games you could bet on.
You need to bet $6,000 on each of the 100 games to win $96,000 for the year.
You make $360,000 on the 60 games you win.
You lose $264,000 on the 40 you lose.
Can you only find 50 games?
Now you need to bet $12,000 on each.
25 games?
You need to wager $24,000 per game.
Summary
Setting goals, making plans, and taking action is a great way to get what you want in life. If you want to win $100,000 a year betting on sports, you might be able to pull it off.
But understand exactly what you need to do to accomplish this goal.
You'll have to decide how much you want to diversify your bankroll.
You'll also have to decide how much work and time is worth that $100,000 a year goal.
08-26-2017, 08:05 PM
8 Things to Know Before You Start Betting On Sports Online
If you're one of the sports bettors who hasn't started placing bets online, you need to know a few things before getting started.
Online sports books make it look easy to get started, and for the most part, it is easy.
But before you jump in, take a few minutes to learn what to do and what to avoid:
1 – Sports Betting Online Isn't Legal in Every Jurisdiction
The laws, rules, and regulations covering gambling vary from location to location and change on what seems like a daily basis.
The bottom line is online sports betting is legal in some areas, illegal in some areas, and a solid gray area in other locations.
Want to find out if it's legal where you live?
Ask an attorney.
Don't make the mistake of looking around online for a couple minutes and then just winging it.
Most people fall into the category called the gray area. If you live in an area that doesn't have a clear-cut law making it legal or illegal, you need to use some common sense.
Has anyone been arrested for gambling online?
Do you know other people who do it and have they had any trouble?
I'm not offering legal advice. Only you can decide if you should place bets online. Use your best judgment. Seek professional legal advice before taking any risks.
2 –Online Sports Books Aren't Created Equal
It may be tempting to just sign up at the first online sports book you find, but they aren't all the same.
Some are more trusted than others. Some offer better lines than others. You may be able to place bets at some while not being able to access others.
You can find an online sports book to take your bets from just about anywhere in the world, but not all of them operate in every jurisdiction.
Do some research to find out which sports books are available in your area, how long they've been in business, how their lines and vig compare to other books, and see what bonuses are available.
3 – Understand Lines before Placing Bets
This may seem like a common sense piece of advice, but always make sure you understand the lines before placing a bet. Not all online sports books display their lines the same way, so it can be confusing until you get used to how each place you make bets does their lines.
4 – Just Because You Can Deposit Doesn't Mean You Can Withdraw
Online sports books are in the business of figuring out how people from anywhere in the world can deposit money to place wagers on sporting events. They have entire departments that deal with this on a regular basis–if players can't make deposits the sports book can't make any money.
Good sports books also make sure winning players have a way to withdraw their winnings. But they don't spend as much time making sure players can withdraw.
Once you find a few sports books, take a quick look to see what withdrawal options they have where you live. If you don't see a method that works, or if you aren't sure, contact the support department. They can tell you how other players in your area receive cash out requests.
5 – Those Bonuses Aren't Free
Remember the bonuses I mentioned a few tips earlier?
Most online sports books offer a bonus to first time depositors to get them to make a deposit and start betting.
You might get a free bet or a match on your deposit. Common deposit bonuses are 50% or 100% of your deposit up to a certain dollar amount.
Here's an example:
You might get 50% up to $500.
So if you deposit $1,000 you get $500 extra.
All bonuses come with certain requirements that must be met before you can take out any money. Most of these requirements revolve around placing a certain amount of wagers. The main thing you need to do is read all the terms and conditions BEFORE making a deposit.
Bonuses CAN be great.
But you don't want to be surprised when you try to cash out and find out you haven't met all of the wagering requirements.
6 – Shopping Lines Is Profitable
I like to have at least two or three different online sports book accounts so I can always wager using the best line possible. Most games will have the same lines on the same games.
But sometimes you can find lines that differ by 2 or 3. When this happens you can use it to make more money over the course of a season.
Here's an example:
Your handicapping tells you the home team should win by at least 7. You check the lines. One book is offering – 7, another, – 6 ½, and another, – 5 ½.
By shopping the lines you were able to turn any outcome of the home team winning by 6 or 7 to a win instead of a loss or push.
It won't come into play often.
But it will come into play often enough to make shopping worth the time required to do it.
7 – If You Win Too Much, Your Action May Be Denied
Sports books don't really want you to win too often. What they really want are bettors to win about 50% of the time, so they can collect vig from everybody half the time.
If you start winning too much, you might be asked not to place wagers with them any longer. This won't happen at the lower betting limits.
But if you consistently win with larger wagers, it's a possibility.
When you're asked not to place any more wagers, the best course of action is find another sports book. It's not worth the hassle and risks involved with trying to get around the ban. If the sports book finds out you tried to open another account or placed bets through another person, you could lose your deposit.
8 – Football Is Soccer in Most of the World
You probably aren't in danger of placing bets on soccer matches when you're trying to bet on American football–the team names won't be familiar.
But it's always better to be safe than sorry.
Always check to make sure you're looking at lines for the sport you intend to bet on. If you want to bet on soccer, it might be called football.
And if you're looking for football, you might need to separate American football from the other games.
Conclusion
Betting on sports online is safe, convenient, and easy–if you use a little common sense and do some research. Use the tips included above and you should be able to start placing wagers online in no time.
If you're one of the sports bettors who hasn't started placing bets online, you need to know a few things before getting started.
Online sports books make it look easy to get started, and for the most part, it is easy.
But before you jump in, take a few minutes to learn what to do and what to avoid:
1 – Sports Betting Online Isn't Legal in Every Jurisdiction
The laws, rules, and regulations covering gambling vary from location to location and change on what seems like a daily basis.
The bottom line is online sports betting is legal in some areas, illegal in some areas, and a solid gray area in other locations.
Want to find out if it's legal where you live?
Ask an attorney.
Don't make the mistake of looking around online for a couple minutes and then just winging it.
Most people fall into the category called the gray area. If you live in an area that doesn't have a clear-cut law making it legal or illegal, you need to use some common sense.
Has anyone been arrested for gambling online?
Do you know other people who do it and have they had any trouble?
I'm not offering legal advice. Only you can decide if you should place bets online. Use your best judgment. Seek professional legal advice before taking any risks.
2 –Online Sports Books Aren't Created Equal
It may be tempting to just sign up at the first online sports book you find, but they aren't all the same.
Some are more trusted than others. Some offer better lines than others. You may be able to place bets at some while not being able to access others.
You can find an online sports book to take your bets from just about anywhere in the world, but not all of them operate in every jurisdiction.
Do some research to find out which sports books are available in your area, how long they've been in business, how their lines and vig compare to other books, and see what bonuses are available.
3 – Understand Lines before Placing Bets
This may seem like a common sense piece of advice, but always make sure you understand the lines before placing a bet. Not all online sports books display their lines the same way, so it can be confusing until you get used to how each place you make bets does their lines.
4 – Just Because You Can Deposit Doesn't Mean You Can Withdraw
Online sports books are in the business of figuring out how people from anywhere in the world can deposit money to place wagers on sporting events. They have entire departments that deal with this on a regular basis–if players can't make deposits the sports book can't make any money.
Good sports books also make sure winning players have a way to withdraw their winnings. But they don't spend as much time making sure players can withdraw.
Once you find a few sports books, take a quick look to see what withdrawal options they have where you live. If you don't see a method that works, or if you aren't sure, contact the support department. They can tell you how other players in your area receive cash out requests.
5 – Those Bonuses Aren't Free
Remember the bonuses I mentioned a few tips earlier?
Most online sports books offer a bonus to first time depositors to get them to make a deposit and start betting.
You might get a free bet or a match on your deposit. Common deposit bonuses are 50% or 100% of your deposit up to a certain dollar amount.
Here's an example:
You might get 50% up to $500.
So if you deposit $1,000 you get $500 extra.
All bonuses come with certain requirements that must be met before you can take out any money. Most of these requirements revolve around placing a certain amount of wagers. The main thing you need to do is read all the terms and conditions BEFORE making a deposit.
Bonuses CAN be great.
But you don't want to be surprised when you try to cash out and find out you haven't met all of the wagering requirements.
6 – Shopping Lines Is Profitable
I like to have at least two or three different online sports book accounts so I can always wager using the best line possible. Most games will have the same lines on the same games.
But sometimes you can find lines that differ by 2 or 3. When this happens you can use it to make more money over the course of a season.
Here's an example:
Your handicapping tells you the home team should win by at least 7. You check the lines. One book is offering – 7, another, – 6 ½, and another, – 5 ½.
By shopping the lines you were able to turn any outcome of the home team winning by 6 or 7 to a win instead of a loss or push.
It won't come into play often.
But it will come into play often enough to make shopping worth the time required to do it.
7 – If You Win Too Much, Your Action May Be Denied
Sports books don't really want you to win too often. What they really want are bettors to win about 50% of the time, so they can collect vig from everybody half the time.
If you start winning too much, you might be asked not to place wagers with them any longer. This won't happen at the lower betting limits.
But if you consistently win with larger wagers, it's a possibility.
When you're asked not to place any more wagers, the best course of action is find another sports book. It's not worth the hassle and risks involved with trying to get around the ban. If the sports book finds out you tried to open another account or placed bets through another person, you could lose your deposit.
8 – Football Is Soccer in Most of the World
You probably aren't in danger of placing bets on soccer matches when you're trying to bet on American football–the team names won't be familiar.
But it's always better to be safe than sorry.
Always check to make sure you're looking at lines for the sport you intend to bet on. If you want to bet on soccer, it might be called football.
And if you're looking for football, you might need to separate American football from the other games.
Conclusion
Betting on sports online is safe, convenient, and easy–if you use a little common sense and do some research. Use the tips included above and you should be able to start placing wagers online in no time.
08-26-2017, 08:07 PM
How To Avoid A Big Sports Betting Loss
Big sports betting losses can be devastating to both professional gamblers and amateurs.
What's the good news?
You can follow a few simple steps to avoid big losses:
Bankroll Management
Understanding your bankroll and how it directly affects how much you can bet on sporting events is the number one way to avoid big sports betting losses.
If you never make a big sports bet you can't ever face a big sports betting loss.
You can still face a string of losses that can start adding up quickly.
But even that can be avoided if you don't over bet your bankroll.
You can determine the exact percentage of your bankroll you should bet on any game--if you can realistically guess your edge. But it's usually impossible to accurately predict your edge. The computations can be advanced, too.
So instead of trying to explain exactly how to do that, I'm going to offer a few general guidelines for your sports betting bankroll:
When you first start betting on games, don't place more than 1% of your bankroll on any game.
Does this sound conservative?
It should, because it is.
But when you're just starting, you don't know if you can even win on a consistent basis. So a conservative approach gives you a cushion while you're learning.
Most occasional bettors view their bankroll differently than a professional sports bettor. If you're a professional, you need to have a separate bankroll.
And you need to protect that bankroll at all costs.
An occasional bettor may not have a set bankroll. They probably just take money from their job or other means of income whenever they want to place a bet.
The amateur needs to consider the size of their bets based on the assumption they'll lose every time a bet is made.
If the bettor can live with losing every bet, they're probably betting in a safe range. If losing--or the thought of losing--any bet is cause for concern, she shouldn't bet that much.
Once you become more comfortable and start winning consistently, move up to betting 2% of your bankroll per game.
A 2% limit per game bet is a good long term goal for maximum protection of your bankroll. Realize in a busy football weekend with a full slate of NFL and NCAA games you could easily bet on 10 games, putting a full 20% of your bankroll in play.
If you move up to a 5% per game range, you might end up putting half your bankroll in play. Try to avoid this if at all possible. If a single bad weekend can wipe out half your bankroll, you're either underfunded or over betting.
Stick with a long term goal of building your bankroll big enough so you can place any bets you need with only exposing 2% or less of your bankroll on any single bet.
Only placing 1 or 2% of your total bankroll on any game also can offer a large psychological advantage. Losses don't seem as bad. The occasional losing streak doesn't create problems.
Not every sports bettor needs the psychological help offered by low bets in comparison to their total bankroll.
But I look for every edge I can possibly find.
Diversification
Professional investors look for ways to diversify their portfolios.
Professional sports bettors look for ways to diversify their sports betting investments.
By limiting your bets to 1 or 2% of your total bankroll, you've taken the first step in diversifying your sports betting.
Another diversification strategy is to offset high risk high reward wagers with low risk low reward options.
Here's an example:
If you bet the money lines on a few big underdogs hoping for a big score you might find a couple big favorites to bet the money line on as well.
You can also look for opportunities that moving lines sometimes present to bet both sides of the same game. If you bet on a game and the line moves more than a point in the right direction, you can bet the other side and have a chance to win both sides of the game--if the final score lands between the old and new line.
Only Bet with an Edge
Winning sports bettors thrive on finding and exploiting edges against the sports books.
They understand what it takes to win in the long run and concentrate on finding situations where they have an edge, even if it's small.
Because they're usually willing to bet with even a small edge they can face extended losing streaks.
Even winning sports bettors face losing streaks.
Even when you reach the point where you can win more often than you lose, you still have to be careful to avoid big losses.
Though winning sports bettors concentrate on winning money instead of games, consider a person who only bets on spread games.
By concentrating on winning money instead of games, you can bet on spread games, money lines, and other combinations that can let you be a long term winner without winning more often than you lose.
Here's an example:
If you win a money line bet on a big underdog, you can often win 10 times your wager or more. Even if you place two or three straight spread bets and lose at the same time the money line bet wins you can win more money than you lose and still only win 33% or 25% of the games you bet on.
When laying 110 to win 100, a sports bettor has to win at least 53% of the time to turn a profit. Any time a winning sports bettor finds a situation where they have at least a 53%, chance to win, they will place a bet.
Over thousands of games, if they always places bets with at least a 53% chance of winning, they'll win more than they lose.
Here's the problem:
They'll lose up to 47% of the time--even if they're a long term winner.
We've already seen why this means they can't bet with too much of their bankroll.
But what can finding an extra few percent do to help both long term profit and the ability to avoid big losses and losing streaks?
Everything depends on how much money a person wagers.
But it often requires quite a few million dollars in bets every year to make a decent living as a sports bettor.
If you bet $3 million a year, every single percent you can improve your winning percentage over 53% is worth $63,000 in profit.
The profit for a half percent gain is$31,500.
The increased profit for a 2% increase is $126,000.
These calculations assume a fairly diversified spread of bets. But the overall numbers are accurate. If you bet on fewer games, it creates additional issues. I based these numbers on 1,000 bets at $3,000 each. Feel free to run your own numbers based on your expected number of bets and amount wagered. Your increased profit will be close to what I calculated above on the same total amount wagered.
The more you make in profit, the less losing streaks and downswings affect you. You can see not only how important improving your winning percentage is to this.
But you can also clearly see how much it can mean to your bottom line.
If you want to be a winning sports bettor, you have to use the bankroll advice in the earlier section so you can afford to place bets on every situation where you have an edge. The worst thing--besides losing--that can happen to a sports bettor is finding a line that offers an edge and not being able to place a bet on it.
Don't Chase
Sports bettors can fall into the same trap that poker players and other gamblers often fall into. If things aren't going their way, players can start betting more.
Why is this dangerous?
Because you start betting without making sure you're only betting with an edge. You start ignoring your bankroll limitations.
This often starts when you think something along the following lines.
"I've had such bad luck I'm due for a win."
Players follow this with a bet two or three times as large as their last one, hoping to make up for all of their losses in one game. Then they lose the next game and end up blowing through their entire bankroll chasing a lucky break.
Even worse, occasionally they make a lucky pick and win a big purse. This only makes them think their new "system" works, so they'll do it again the next time they face a few straight losses.
Before they know it they're broke.
No matter what's happened in the past, stay calm and focused and continue making good decisions. It's the only way to profit in the long run and avoid big losses.
Don't Bet
The only 100% sure way to avoid a big sports betting loss is to not place a bet. You can find plenty of situations where things are in your favor and games where you should win most of the time.
But no game or wager offers a 100% sure thing.
If you ever find yourself saying "it's a sure thing" or have someone say it to you, immediately take a step back and think about what you're saying or hearing.
It doesn't matter how "sure" you or anyone else is, nothing is a sure thing in gambling except not betting at all.
If you have to bet, I've already covered the ways to avoid large losses.
Conclusion
Avoiding big sports betting losses are important to both the amateur and the professional gambler. Make sure you understand your bankroll limitations, diversify your betting portfolio, and only place bets when you have an edge.
You should be able to avoid both big losses and long losing streaks.
Big sports betting losses can be devastating to both professional gamblers and amateurs.
What's the good news?
You can follow a few simple steps to avoid big losses:
Bankroll Management
Understanding your bankroll and how it directly affects how much you can bet on sporting events is the number one way to avoid big sports betting losses.
If you never make a big sports bet you can't ever face a big sports betting loss.
You can still face a string of losses that can start adding up quickly.
But even that can be avoided if you don't over bet your bankroll.
You can determine the exact percentage of your bankroll you should bet on any game--if you can realistically guess your edge. But it's usually impossible to accurately predict your edge. The computations can be advanced, too.
So instead of trying to explain exactly how to do that, I'm going to offer a few general guidelines for your sports betting bankroll:
When you first start betting on games, don't place more than 1% of your bankroll on any game.
Does this sound conservative?
It should, because it is.
But when you're just starting, you don't know if you can even win on a consistent basis. So a conservative approach gives you a cushion while you're learning.
Most occasional bettors view their bankroll differently than a professional sports bettor. If you're a professional, you need to have a separate bankroll.
And you need to protect that bankroll at all costs.
An occasional bettor may not have a set bankroll. They probably just take money from their job or other means of income whenever they want to place a bet.
The amateur needs to consider the size of their bets based on the assumption they'll lose every time a bet is made.
If the bettor can live with losing every bet, they're probably betting in a safe range. If losing--or the thought of losing--any bet is cause for concern, she shouldn't bet that much.
Once you become more comfortable and start winning consistently, move up to betting 2% of your bankroll per game.
A 2% limit per game bet is a good long term goal for maximum protection of your bankroll. Realize in a busy football weekend with a full slate of NFL and NCAA games you could easily bet on 10 games, putting a full 20% of your bankroll in play.
If you move up to a 5% per game range, you might end up putting half your bankroll in play. Try to avoid this if at all possible. If a single bad weekend can wipe out half your bankroll, you're either underfunded or over betting.
Stick with a long term goal of building your bankroll big enough so you can place any bets you need with only exposing 2% or less of your bankroll on any single bet.
Only placing 1 or 2% of your total bankroll on any game also can offer a large psychological advantage. Losses don't seem as bad. The occasional losing streak doesn't create problems.
Not every sports bettor needs the psychological help offered by low bets in comparison to their total bankroll.
But I look for every edge I can possibly find.
Diversification
Professional investors look for ways to diversify their portfolios.
Professional sports bettors look for ways to diversify their sports betting investments.
By limiting your bets to 1 or 2% of your total bankroll, you've taken the first step in diversifying your sports betting.
Another diversification strategy is to offset high risk high reward wagers with low risk low reward options.
Here's an example:
If you bet the money lines on a few big underdogs hoping for a big score you might find a couple big favorites to bet the money line on as well.
You can also look for opportunities that moving lines sometimes present to bet both sides of the same game. If you bet on a game and the line moves more than a point in the right direction, you can bet the other side and have a chance to win both sides of the game--if the final score lands between the old and new line.
Only Bet with an Edge
Winning sports bettors thrive on finding and exploiting edges against the sports books.
They understand what it takes to win in the long run and concentrate on finding situations where they have an edge, even if it's small.
Because they're usually willing to bet with even a small edge they can face extended losing streaks.
Even winning sports bettors face losing streaks.
Even when you reach the point where you can win more often than you lose, you still have to be careful to avoid big losses.
Though winning sports bettors concentrate on winning money instead of games, consider a person who only bets on spread games.
By concentrating on winning money instead of games, you can bet on spread games, money lines, and other combinations that can let you be a long term winner without winning more often than you lose.
Here's an example:
If you win a money line bet on a big underdog, you can often win 10 times your wager or more. Even if you place two or three straight spread bets and lose at the same time the money line bet wins you can win more money than you lose and still only win 33% or 25% of the games you bet on.
When laying 110 to win 100, a sports bettor has to win at least 53% of the time to turn a profit. Any time a winning sports bettor finds a situation where they have at least a 53%, chance to win, they will place a bet.
Over thousands of games, if they always places bets with at least a 53% chance of winning, they'll win more than they lose.
Here's the problem:
They'll lose up to 47% of the time--even if they're a long term winner.
We've already seen why this means they can't bet with too much of their bankroll.
But what can finding an extra few percent do to help both long term profit and the ability to avoid big losses and losing streaks?
Everything depends on how much money a person wagers.
But it often requires quite a few million dollars in bets every year to make a decent living as a sports bettor.
If you bet $3 million a year, every single percent you can improve your winning percentage over 53% is worth $63,000 in profit.
The profit for a half percent gain is$31,500.
The increased profit for a 2% increase is $126,000.
These calculations assume a fairly diversified spread of bets. But the overall numbers are accurate. If you bet on fewer games, it creates additional issues. I based these numbers on 1,000 bets at $3,000 each. Feel free to run your own numbers based on your expected number of bets and amount wagered. Your increased profit will be close to what I calculated above on the same total amount wagered.
The more you make in profit, the less losing streaks and downswings affect you. You can see not only how important improving your winning percentage is to this.
But you can also clearly see how much it can mean to your bottom line.
If you want to be a winning sports bettor, you have to use the bankroll advice in the earlier section so you can afford to place bets on every situation where you have an edge. The worst thing--besides losing--that can happen to a sports bettor is finding a line that offers an edge and not being able to place a bet on it.
Don't Chase
Sports bettors can fall into the same trap that poker players and other gamblers often fall into. If things aren't going their way, players can start betting more.
Why is this dangerous?
Because you start betting without making sure you're only betting with an edge. You start ignoring your bankroll limitations.
This often starts when you think something along the following lines.
"I've had such bad luck I'm due for a win."
Players follow this with a bet two or three times as large as their last one, hoping to make up for all of their losses in one game. Then they lose the next game and end up blowing through their entire bankroll chasing a lucky break.
Even worse, occasionally they make a lucky pick and win a big purse. This only makes them think their new "system" works, so they'll do it again the next time they face a few straight losses.
Before they know it they're broke.
No matter what's happened in the past, stay calm and focused and continue making good decisions. It's the only way to profit in the long run and avoid big losses.
Don't Bet
The only 100% sure way to avoid a big sports betting loss is to not place a bet. You can find plenty of situations where things are in your favor and games where you should win most of the time.
But no game or wager offers a 100% sure thing.
If you ever find yourself saying "it's a sure thing" or have someone say it to you, immediately take a step back and think about what you're saying or hearing.
It doesn't matter how "sure" you or anyone else is, nothing is a sure thing in gambling except not betting at all.
If you have to bet, I've already covered the ways to avoid large losses.
Conclusion
Avoiding big sports betting losses are important to both the amateur and the professional gambler. Make sure you understand your bankroll limitations, diversify your betting portfolio, and only place bets when you have an edge.
You should be able to avoid both big losses and long losing streaks.
08-26-2017, 08:09 PM
23 Shocking and Unexpected Truths You Learn from Betting on Sports
Sports betting can reveal many things to bettors as they progress from beginner, to average, to winning.
Some of these things may not be surprising, but some of them can be downright shocking.
Here's a list of things you may learn from betting on sports:
1 – Picking Winning Teams with the Spread Is Hard
Most sports bettors get started by betting on their favorite teams with other fans. Usually point spreads and vig aren't involved. They just bet on who will win the game.
If you start winning more often than you lose, you might start thinking it isn't that hard to pick winners.
When you start adding point spreads and vig, it gets a lot harder to win consistently.
It makes it so difficult that most sports bettors end up losing money in the long run.
2 – There's No Such Thing as a Sure Thing
You can find numerous opportunities that are heavily in your favor, but the existence of a sure thing in sports betting doesn't exist.
Never over-bet your bankroll--no matter how good a betting situation may appear.
Find someone giving you advice on a game that's a sure thing?
Be instantly skeptical.
Can the person benefit in any way from giving you the information?
Usually the person with the sure thing is trying to sell me something.
3 – Home Teams Win More Often, But Not More Often Enough
Home teams have an advantage in just about all sports.
But it isn't enough to be used in a profitable nature by sports bettors.
When they set the lines, books factor in home field advantage. So you have to find other things to use when handicapping games. You need to use the home team advantage in your calculations as well--so you can see where a sports book may be giving a home team too much or too little credit.
4 – Betting on Sports Is Hard Work - If You Want To Win, Anyway
Betting on sports is easy
But becoming a winning sports bettor requires a lot of work.
Want to win?
You have to study players, teams, games, statistics, models (the statistical kind, not the swimsuit wearing ones), and anything else that might give you an edge.
Hoping to get an edge while spending a few hours a week watching games or looking at stats online is a quick route to the poor house. Even if you're lucky enough to win for a while, your luck will run out eventually--unless you put in the required work to be a winner.
5 – Being a Stats Nerd Helps
I don't know why so many people associate the word nerd with something bad. It might not be the best occupation in high school, but most of the people with big money could be called nerds. Computer and software companies make lots of cash.
Sports bettors need to find and process a great deal of statistical data. It helps if you're already a stats person. You don't HAVE to be a stats nerd to become a winning sports bettor.
But you're probably going to have to hire out the work or learn how to process numbers.
6 – Bankroll Management Is Almost as Important as Picking Winners
If you can't pick winners, it doesn't matter how you manage your bankroll. Even if you're an overall winner, mismanage your bankroll, and you'll still lose.
You have to have enough money to bet on every game that gives you an edge without risking too much on any single event.
7 – Picking 50% Winners Is Easy - Picking 53% Winners Is the Holy Grail
It's amazing how much more difficult it is to pick winners 53% of the time than it is to pick them 50% of the time.
You can pick winners by flipping a coin, and you'll win 50% of the time in the long run.
Assuming a standard 10% vig, you need to win 53% of the time to profit in the long run.
Only a select few sports bettors pick 53% or better. You don't find many of them.
Start tracking your sports betting results immediately. See how often you currently win. See if you can figure out how to start climbing toward the magical 53% mark.
8 – Your Favorite Team Sucks
Once you start betting in a serious manner, you often start seeing all of the flaws your favorite team has. As a fan you can usually ignore minor flaws, but as a sports bettor you have to see every flaw to make smart bets.
9 – You Can't Bet on Games Involving Your Favorite Team
Only the best sports bettors are able to ignore their personal feelings about their favorite team and bet for or against them. I've been betting on sports for years. I still won't bet on a game involving my favorite team. I have a hard time being objective when evaluating their play, so I avoid the conflict.
10 – Watching Games Isn't Fun Anymore
It's hard to watch games for enjoyment once you start betting on sports. You find yourself looking for ways to gain an advantage and have a hard time getting into "fan" mode.
11 – Anyone Can Bet - Few Can Win
Anyone can find someone to take their bets, but only a few actually win in the long run.
The real winners in the sports betting industry are the books who charge a percentage on losing wagers.
Do you really want to start raking in the money?
Figure out how you can set up a legal bookmaking operation.
12 – It's Not a Hobby
Winning sports bettors act like betting on sports is a business or a job, not a hobby.
What's the difference?
Hobbies cost money.
Businesses earn money.
13 – It's Only a Problem if You Lose
In no way do I support problem gamblers placing wagers. If you have a problem, find help right now.
But many of the sports bettors I thought had a problem said this to me:
"It's only a problem if you're losing."
A problem gambler might be aware that he has a problem.
But he only recognizes it as a possible problem if he's losing.
Here's the thought process:
If you're winning you can't possibly have a gambling problem.
Not sure if you have a problem, even though you're winning?
Try this quiz.
14 – Football Is Popular - but Baseball and Regular Season Basketball Can Be Gold Mines
Most bets are placed during football season. The sports books spend most of their resources making sure they put out the best betting lines possible for football games.
They want to publish good lines during baseball and basketball season, too.
But you can find many wagering opportunities during baseball and basketball season. Both games are easier to profit from than professional football.
15 – College Sports Are Easier to Handicap than Pro Sports
College sports are easier to handicap than professional sports. The sports books focus on pro sports before they look at college games.
It's the same reason why baseball and basketball can be profitable—only more so.
16 – Getting Large Bets Down Can Be as Hard as Picking Winners
When you start winning on a consistent basis, your bankroll starts growing. Eventually you can reach a point where the bets you want to place become bigger than your betting limits.
The next thing you do is start placing bets in more than one place. Eventually even this can become hard to manage.
This is a good problem to have. It means you're winning.
But when you have an edge, you want to get as much money as you can down on a game (while maintaining safe bankroll considerations).
17 – A Regular Job Might Be More Profitable
Few sports bettors actually win in the long run.
Even some of the profitable sports bettors don't make enough to make it a better option than a job.
If you track all of your sports betting action, you can get an idea if you're better off financially than working.
18 – Specialize Before You Run
You need to walk before you run.
You also need to pick a sport and start winning consistently before you start betting on other sports.
Dividing your attention between two or more sports can keep you from winning in any of them.
19 – You CAN Do It Alone - But Outside Help Can Be Valuable
Most sports bettors start their betting career on their own, but as they grow they have the opportunity to use other people to help them get better. Instead of doing all of the research yourself, consider outsourcing it using a freelancer or part time employee.
20 – Amateurs Pick Games - Pros Handicap Games
If you want to be a professional sports bettor, focus on handicapping games, not picking them.
When you handicap a game you look at both sides, the line, and all of the information you have. Using all of these things you decide if the line offers an edge on either side.
If you just pick games, you aren't taking it seriously enough. Eventually you'll start losing.
21 – You Might Be Better Off Playing Roulette
Most sports bettors only pick winners about 50% of the time. If you're no better than average, you could just bet on red or black on the roulette wheel. You'd have roughly the same chance of winning.
22 – Paying Less Vig Is the Same as Winning More
When you pay the normal 10% vig on losing wagers, it means you have to win more to show a profit. Any lower amount of vig you can pay reduces the amount you need to win in order to come out ahead.
You can find special deals offering reduced vig by shopping around with different sports books--both land based and online.
23 – Inside Information Is Great - But It's Not Everything
Professional sports bettors are always trying to find inside information. They know if they can get the right kind of information before the sports books, it can be worth a great deal of money.
But they also understand that inside information, no matter how valuable it may seem, is only a part of their overall handicapping equation.
Don't put too much faith in any single thing about a game. Evaluate everything you know to make a winning decision before placing a bet.
Conclusion
Learning about these unexpected truths can help you avoid losing money in your own sports betting career.
Sports betting can reveal many things to bettors as they progress from beginner, to average, to winning.
Some of these things may not be surprising, but some of them can be downright shocking.
Here's a list of things you may learn from betting on sports:
1 – Picking Winning Teams with the Spread Is Hard
Most sports bettors get started by betting on their favorite teams with other fans. Usually point spreads and vig aren't involved. They just bet on who will win the game.
If you start winning more often than you lose, you might start thinking it isn't that hard to pick winners.
When you start adding point spreads and vig, it gets a lot harder to win consistently.
It makes it so difficult that most sports bettors end up losing money in the long run.
2 – There's No Such Thing as a Sure Thing
You can find numerous opportunities that are heavily in your favor, but the existence of a sure thing in sports betting doesn't exist.
Never over-bet your bankroll--no matter how good a betting situation may appear.
Find someone giving you advice on a game that's a sure thing?
Be instantly skeptical.
Can the person benefit in any way from giving you the information?
Usually the person with the sure thing is trying to sell me something.
3 – Home Teams Win More Often, But Not More Often Enough
Home teams have an advantage in just about all sports.
But it isn't enough to be used in a profitable nature by sports bettors.
When they set the lines, books factor in home field advantage. So you have to find other things to use when handicapping games. You need to use the home team advantage in your calculations as well--so you can see where a sports book may be giving a home team too much or too little credit.
4 – Betting on Sports Is Hard Work - If You Want To Win, Anyway
Betting on sports is easy
But becoming a winning sports bettor requires a lot of work.
Want to win?
You have to study players, teams, games, statistics, models (the statistical kind, not the swimsuit wearing ones), and anything else that might give you an edge.
Hoping to get an edge while spending a few hours a week watching games or looking at stats online is a quick route to the poor house. Even if you're lucky enough to win for a while, your luck will run out eventually--unless you put in the required work to be a winner.
5 – Being a Stats Nerd Helps
I don't know why so many people associate the word nerd with something bad. It might not be the best occupation in high school, but most of the people with big money could be called nerds. Computer and software companies make lots of cash.
Sports bettors need to find and process a great deal of statistical data. It helps if you're already a stats person. You don't HAVE to be a stats nerd to become a winning sports bettor.
But you're probably going to have to hire out the work or learn how to process numbers.
6 – Bankroll Management Is Almost as Important as Picking Winners
If you can't pick winners, it doesn't matter how you manage your bankroll. Even if you're an overall winner, mismanage your bankroll, and you'll still lose.
You have to have enough money to bet on every game that gives you an edge without risking too much on any single event.
7 – Picking 50% Winners Is Easy - Picking 53% Winners Is the Holy Grail
It's amazing how much more difficult it is to pick winners 53% of the time than it is to pick them 50% of the time.
You can pick winners by flipping a coin, and you'll win 50% of the time in the long run.
Assuming a standard 10% vig, you need to win 53% of the time to profit in the long run.
Only a select few sports bettors pick 53% or better. You don't find many of them.
Start tracking your sports betting results immediately. See how often you currently win. See if you can figure out how to start climbing toward the magical 53% mark.
8 – Your Favorite Team Sucks
Once you start betting in a serious manner, you often start seeing all of the flaws your favorite team has. As a fan you can usually ignore minor flaws, but as a sports bettor you have to see every flaw to make smart bets.
9 – You Can't Bet on Games Involving Your Favorite Team
Only the best sports bettors are able to ignore their personal feelings about their favorite team and bet for or against them. I've been betting on sports for years. I still won't bet on a game involving my favorite team. I have a hard time being objective when evaluating their play, so I avoid the conflict.
10 – Watching Games Isn't Fun Anymore
It's hard to watch games for enjoyment once you start betting on sports. You find yourself looking for ways to gain an advantage and have a hard time getting into "fan" mode.
11 – Anyone Can Bet - Few Can Win
Anyone can find someone to take their bets, but only a few actually win in the long run.
The real winners in the sports betting industry are the books who charge a percentage on losing wagers.
Do you really want to start raking in the money?
Figure out how you can set up a legal bookmaking operation.
12 – It's Not a Hobby
Winning sports bettors act like betting on sports is a business or a job, not a hobby.
What's the difference?
Hobbies cost money.
Businesses earn money.
13 – It's Only a Problem if You Lose
In no way do I support problem gamblers placing wagers. If you have a problem, find help right now.
But many of the sports bettors I thought had a problem said this to me:
"It's only a problem if you're losing."
A problem gambler might be aware that he has a problem.
But he only recognizes it as a possible problem if he's losing.
Here's the thought process:
If you're winning you can't possibly have a gambling problem.
Not sure if you have a problem, even though you're winning?
Try this quiz.
14 – Football Is Popular - but Baseball and Regular Season Basketball Can Be Gold Mines
Most bets are placed during football season. The sports books spend most of their resources making sure they put out the best betting lines possible for football games.
They want to publish good lines during baseball and basketball season, too.
But you can find many wagering opportunities during baseball and basketball season. Both games are easier to profit from than professional football.
15 – College Sports Are Easier to Handicap than Pro Sports
College sports are easier to handicap than professional sports. The sports books focus on pro sports before they look at college games.
It's the same reason why baseball and basketball can be profitable—only more so.
16 – Getting Large Bets Down Can Be as Hard as Picking Winners
When you start winning on a consistent basis, your bankroll starts growing. Eventually you can reach a point where the bets you want to place become bigger than your betting limits.
The next thing you do is start placing bets in more than one place. Eventually even this can become hard to manage.
This is a good problem to have. It means you're winning.
But when you have an edge, you want to get as much money as you can down on a game (while maintaining safe bankroll considerations).
17 – A Regular Job Might Be More Profitable
Few sports bettors actually win in the long run.
Even some of the profitable sports bettors don't make enough to make it a better option than a job.
If you track all of your sports betting action, you can get an idea if you're better off financially than working.
18 – Specialize Before You Run
You need to walk before you run.
You also need to pick a sport and start winning consistently before you start betting on other sports.
Dividing your attention between two or more sports can keep you from winning in any of them.
19 – You CAN Do It Alone - But Outside Help Can Be Valuable
Most sports bettors start their betting career on their own, but as they grow they have the opportunity to use other people to help them get better. Instead of doing all of the research yourself, consider outsourcing it using a freelancer or part time employee.
20 – Amateurs Pick Games - Pros Handicap Games
If you want to be a professional sports bettor, focus on handicapping games, not picking them.
When you handicap a game you look at both sides, the line, and all of the information you have. Using all of these things you decide if the line offers an edge on either side.
If you just pick games, you aren't taking it seriously enough. Eventually you'll start losing.
21 – You Might Be Better Off Playing Roulette
Most sports bettors only pick winners about 50% of the time. If you're no better than average, you could just bet on red or black on the roulette wheel. You'd have roughly the same chance of winning.
22 – Paying Less Vig Is the Same as Winning More
When you pay the normal 10% vig on losing wagers, it means you have to win more to show a profit. Any lower amount of vig you can pay reduces the amount you need to win in order to come out ahead.
You can find special deals offering reduced vig by shopping around with different sports books--both land based and online.
23 – Inside Information Is Great - But It's Not Everything
Professional sports bettors are always trying to find inside information. They know if they can get the right kind of information before the sports books, it can be worth a great deal of money.
But they also understand that inside information, no matter how valuable it may seem, is only a part of their overall handicapping equation.
Don't put too much faith in any single thing about a game. Evaluate everything you know to make a winning decision before placing a bet.
Conclusion
Learning about these unexpected truths can help you avoid losing money in your own sports betting career.