[GET] Calculated Risks How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

[digimike]

Calculated Risks How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Cover Image: https://ibb.co/16w0W9Z

Download: http://www.mediafire.com/file/ez8v0ci7tr...s.pdf/file

I am always very grateful for reps - thank you!

At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics.

Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven’t learned statistical thinking, we don’t understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk – everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests – we need a basic understanding of statistics.

Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don’t understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive…

[Miguelrivas]

Super thanks, repped